Four numbers for a price that is a chance.

A candle is a bucket of trades. Everything that printed inside an interval is reduced to four numbers. On a stock those numbers are dollars. On Polymarket they are implied probabilities, because the contract pays $1 if the event happens and $0 if it does not. A print at $0.47 is a 47% chance.

A crypto chart can go anywhere. A prediction-market chart lives on 0–100. That bound is not a reason to throw the candles away. It is a reason to read them more carefully. A wick that prints 8% on a market that has lived at 60% for a week is a different event from a wick that prints 8% on a market that has been dying for a month.

Mean-reversion looks different on a bounded axis too. A stock that doubles can double again. A 90% prediction market that wants to go higher has ten points of room and a settlement that will eventually force the last ten. The candle still tells you whether those last ten were fought over or handed over.

Polymarket vs crypto charts is the longer comparison. The short version: same four fields, different market structure, and the terminal value is binary.

Every prediction market in this snapshot will, eventually, be 0 or 1. That is the destination. It is also the least interesting thing on the chart the week before resolution, because everyone already knows the two legal endings.

The tradeable object is the path. Did the book accept 40% as support, or did it only tag 40% on a wick and close back at 55%? Did a headline move the close, or did it move the high and then get sold? Those are OHLC questions. A close-only series cannot ask them. Why probability lines mislead is the case against the line; this page is the case for the four numbers that replace it.

In the shipped snapshot of Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31 — 45 daily candles from 11 May 2026 to 24 June 2026 — the series as a whole ran 21.5% to 76.5%. The single widest day opened inside a narrower band and printed a 34.0-point range on 23 May 2026. That day is invisible if you only keep the close.

A candle is a summary of trades. If the interval contains one trade, the open, high, low and close are the same print. Drawing that as a candle is not reconstruction. It is decoration. Thinly traded Polymarket events do not clear the bar, especially on short timeframes.

Predm does not invent candles for books that cannot fill them. The honest output for a dead interval is a gap, not a doji you are invited to pattern-match. How to chart Polymarket walks through the rebuild step by step, including the timeframe choice that decides whether a market has enough prints to bother.

The other failure mode is the opposite: so many prints that a 5-minute candle is a real object, and the daily candle is then a true summary rather than a lonely pair of ticks. Liquidity is what makes OHLC mean something. Volume is not a vibe. It is the condition under which the four numbers stop being a drawing.

Daily candles answer “what did the book believe today?” Intraday candles answer “what did it believe in this hour, and did it hold?” Both are useful. They are not interchangeable.

A daily candle on a political market can hide an entire news cycle. The high is the spike on the leak; the close is the fade after the correction; the body looks moderate. The 15-minute series of that same day is the cycle. Multi-timeframe signals exist to keep those two stories on the same screen so you do not have to remember one while you look at the other.

Closer to resolution the daily candle starts to matter more than the 5-minute, because the destination is pulling the path. A 97% market still printing 20-point wicks on the five-minute is a book that is not done arguing. A 97% market with no wick is a book that has already decided. The four numbers tell you which one you are in.

Predm does not scrape someone else’s candle chart. It reads the raw trade feed and buckets it. First print in the interval is the open. Last print is the close. Extremes are the high and the low. Nothing is clipped. Nothing is smoothed. A wick that looks implausible is a wick that printed.

That is the whole of the “engine.” It is arithmetic, not a model. The reason it has to be done at all is that the venue’s public chart is the close series, and a close series cannot be reverse-engineered into a high. You cannot recover a wick from a line. You have to go back to the trades.

The same rebuild is what the candlestick guide puts next to a line, on this same snapshot, so you can toggle the two drawings and see the discarded range with your own eyes.

OHLC is not a forecast. It is a compression of what already traded. Technical analysis on top of it is a separate claim, and a bounded binary market breaks some of the folklore that works on crypto. Technical analysis for prediction markets is honest about what transfers.

You cannot trade here. Predm is read-only. Orders happen on the venue.

Two venues are live. Polymarket and Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid is a perpetual-futures book, not a binary event, so its candles are closer to the crypto ones you already know. The prediction-market half of this page is about Polymarket.

What does OHLC stand for on a prediction market?

Open, high, low and close of the implied probability over an interval. A YES share at $0.63 is a 63% open, high, low or close, depending on where in the bucket that print sat.

Why not just use the last traded price?

Last traded price is the close of “now.” It tells you where the estimate is. It does not tell you whether the estimate has already been to 40% and 80% this afternoon. That range is the difference between a quiet book and a violent one.

Do these candles work with RSI, MACD, moving averages?

Any indicator that consumes OHLC can be pointed at a rebuilt series. Whether the indicator still means what you think it means on a 0–100 market that resolves to 0 or 1 is a different question. Start with the candles. Add indicators after you can read the range without them.

Why do some markets have no candles?

Not enough trades in the interval to produce four numbers that differ in a way worth drawing. A candle on a silent book is a fiction. Predm leaves those markets uncharted rather than decorating them.