The line tells you where it closed. Not where it went.

On a prediction market the price is the probability. A share that pays out $1 if the event happens trades at $0.47 when the market collectively thinks it is 47% likely, so the chart is not a price history in the usual sense — it is an estimate, changing its mind in public.

The natural way to draw a changing estimate is a single line, and that is what you get. The problem is arithmetic, not design: a line carries one number per point in time. Whatever the market did between two points is not missing because someone hid it. A line has nowhere to put it.

A candle carries four numbers for the same interval — where the estimate opened, the highest it reached, the lowest, and where it ended. Same data, four times the resolution.

The words are borrowed from equities, where they describe a price. Read against a probability they say something more specific, and more useful:

That is easier to believe with a date on it. Take 12 June 2026 out of the snapshot above.

Close to close, the estimate went from 46.5% to 46.5% — it did not move at all. A line chart draws a flat segment through that day. Inside the day it traded as low as 36.5% and as high as 52.5%: a 16.0-point swing in what the market believed, invisible on the chart most people were looking at.

It is not a freak day, either. Across this snapshot the close-to-close move came in at under half the day’s actual range on 23 of 43 days. Most of the time, most of what happened was in the wick.

From the raw trade feed, not from the published line. Reconstructing an open, high, low and close means going back to the individual trades and bucketing them by interval — which is why this is computed rather than scraped, and why the numbers are ours rather than a redrawing of somebody else’s chart.

Nothing is smoothed. No moving average is baked into the series, no outlier is clipped, and a wick that looks implausible is a wick that really happened. The series above is daily; the tallest candle in it ran 21.5% to 76.5% across the snapshot as a whole. You can check it against the panel.

Once the four numbers exist, the rest of a trader’s toolkit has something to eat. Prior highs and lows become levels. A wick that tags 40% and closes at 55% is a failed attempt, not a fifteen-point rally. A day that closes unchanged with a twenty-point range is a fight, not a rest day.

That is the whole case for reconstruction. Technical analysis for prediction markets is what to do next, including the parts of TA that do not transfer to a market that ends at 0 or 1. How to chart Polymarket is the walkthrough if you want the rebuild steps rather than the reading.

The other pane that belongs next to any of these charts is who holds the other side. A beautiful candle on a book owned by four wallets is a picture of four wallets. Holder concentration is that pane.

You cannot trade here. Predm is a read-only analytics terminal. It reads markets, computes on them and shows you the result; placing an order happens on the venue.

Not every market gets candles. A candle is only meaningful where there were enough trades in the interval to have an open, a high, a low and a close that differ. Thinly traded markets do not clear that bar, and giving them a chart anyway would be drawing noise with a straight face.

Two venues are live today. Predm reads Polymarket and Hyperliquid. Aster, Binance, Kraken and Kalshi are marked coming soon on the homepage and no surface here serves their data yet.

A candle is not a forecast. Rebuilding OHLC tells you what the book did. It does not tell you which way the event resolves. Anyone selling a candlestick pattern as a Polymarket system is selling a screenshot.

How do I read a candlestick chart on Polymarket?

Same four fields as any other candle: open, high, low, close. On Polymarket they are implied probabilities, not dollars. The body is the change in the estimate; the wicks are the rest of the interval. A line chart keeps only the close.

Does Polymarket have native candlesticks?

The venue chart is a probability line. Candles have to be rebuilt from the trade feed. That is the work Predm does, and it is why this page can toggle the two drawings on the same snapshot.

Why would a close-to-close line hide a 16-point day?

Because a line has room for one number. If the book opens and closes in the same place, the line is flat, no matter how far the estimate travelled in between. The high and the low of that day live only in a candle.

Are these the same as crypto candles?

Same schema, different market. Polymarket is a 0–100 probability that resolves to 0 or 1. Polymarket vs crypto charts is the comparison.